Newry and Armagh: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Newry and Armagh: Overview

Projection: SF seat

Implied MP at 2017:	Mickey Brady (SF)
County/Area:	Armagh (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:	75,876
Turnout:	68.5%

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
SF	25,276	48.7%
DUP	12,072	23.2%
SDLP	9,231	17.8%
UUP	4,183	8.1%
Alliance	1,187	2.3%
Green	3	0.0%
SF Majority	13,204	25.4%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Newry and Armagh been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

Newry and Armagh: Map

List of old seats forming part of Newry and Armagh

The old seat(s) needed are:

Down South
Fermanagh and South Tyrone
Newry and Armagh

Old seat: Down South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Down South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Down South				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	UUP Votes	SDLP Votes	DUP Votes	Alliance Votes	Green Votes	SF Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Banbridge East	827	Down Mid	27	91	192	50	0	161	0	0	521
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Gransha	721	Down Mid	21	71	222	24	0	126	0	0	464
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Loughbrickland	1,150	Down South	37	140	236	36	0	218	0	0	667
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Rathfriland	3,323	Down South	121	401	942	61	0	706	0	0	2,231
Newry, Mourne and Down	Abbey	222	Newry and Armagh	2	54	16	2	0	87	0	0	161
Newry, Mourne and Down	Annalong	2,968	Down South	113	475	495	32	0	811	0	0	1,926
Newry, Mourne and Down	Ballydugan	2,628	Down South	51	437	331	178	0	712	0	0	1,709
Newry, Mourne and Down	Ballyward	2,853	Down South	81	384	483	182	0	644	0	0	1,774
Newry, Mourne and Down	Binnian	2,958	Down South	116	389	694	32	0	670	0	0	1,901
Newry, Mourne and Down	Burren	2,842	Down South	59	829	179	21	0	756	0	0	1,844
Newry, Mourne and Down	Castlewellan	2,774	Down South	51	587	211	129	0	1,061	0	0	2,039
Newry, Mourne and Down	Cathedral	2,746	Down South	31	908	175	23	0	767	0	0	1,904
Newry, Mourne and Down	Crossgar and Killyleagh	1,118	Down South	41	199	261	61	0	241	0	0	803
Newry, Mourne and Down	Damolly	506	Newry and Armagh	12	129	44	5	0	186	0	0	376
Newry, Mourne and Down	Derryboy	414	Down Mid	14	61	101	22	0	80	0	0	278
Newry, Mourne and Down	Derryleckagh	3,123	Down South	75	891	208	23	0	877	0	0	2,074
Newry, Mourne and Down	Donard	2,665	Down South	88	618	225	156	0	716	0	0	1,803
Newry, Mourne and Down	Drumaness	2,828	Down South	79	461	393	192	0	773	0	0	1,898
Newry, Mourne and Down	Dundrum	2,886	Down South	90	468	477	205	0	725	0	0	1,965
Newry, Mourne and Down	Hilltown	3,244	Down South	100	922	252	28	0	972	0	0	2,274
Newry, Mourne and Down	Kilkeel	2,462	Down South	113	387	558	49	0	715	0	0	1,822
Newry, Mourne and Down	Knocknashinna	3,046	Down South	28	1,145	190	26	0	737	0	0	2,126
Newry, Mourne and Down	Lecale	2,925	Down South	38	991	184	24	0	692	0	0	1,929
Newry, Mourne and Down	Lisnacree	3,171	Down South	110	679	275	32	0	1,118	0	0	2,214
Newry, Mourne and Down	Mayobridge	3,008	Down South	92	837	231	26	0	834	0	0	2,020
Newry, Mourne and Down	Murlough	3,054	Down South	88	598	221	68	0	887	0	0	1,862
Newry, Mourne and Down	Quoile	2,762	Down South	78	954	203	22	0	478	0	0	1,735
Newry, Mourne and Down	Rostrevor	3,112	Down South	54	1,035	207	25	0	848	0	0	2,169
Newry, Mourne and Down	St Patrick's	705	Newry and Armagh	17	203	56	7	0	224	0	0	507
Newry, Mourne and Down	Strangford	2,791	Down South	42	964	169	21	0	589	0	0	1,785
Newry, Mourne and Down	Tollymore	2,865	Down South	86	604	217	26	0	931	0	0	1,864
Newry, Mourne and Down	Warrenpoint	2,986	Down South	48	973	218	28	0	986	0	0	2,253
	Total	75,683		2,003	17,885	8,866	1,816	0	20,328	0	0	50,898

The full details of these calculations are given on the Down South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Fermanagh and South Tyrone

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Fermanagh and South Tyrone, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Fermanagh and South Tyrone				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	UUP Votes	SDLP Votes	DUP Votes	Alliance Votes	Green Votes	SF Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Loughgall	547	Newry and Armagh	194	25	0	4	3	163	0	0	389
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	The Birches	393	Upper Bann	144	17	0	4	2	119	0	0	286
Fermanagh and Omagh	Ballinamallard	2,092	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	1,032	66	0	9	8	509	0	0	1,624
Fermanagh and Omagh	Belcoo and Garrison	2,070	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	444	68	0	7	7	767	0	0	1,293
Fermanagh and Omagh	Belleek and Boa	2,276	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	704	79	0	8	8	638	0	0	1,437
Fermanagh and Omagh	Boho, Cleenish and Letterbreen	2,337	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	717	72	0	10	9	752	0	0	1,560
Fermanagh and Omagh	Brookeborough	1,859	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	445	36	0	7	6	624	0	0	1,118
Fermanagh and Omagh	Castlecoole	2,103	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	879	89	0	72	44	688	0	0	1,772
Fermanagh and Omagh	Derrygonnelly	2,036	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	636	81	0	8	8	713	0	0	1,446
Fermanagh and Omagh	Derrylin	1,874	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	463	71	0	7	7	774	0	0	1,322
Fermanagh and Omagh	Donagh	1,968	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	341	52	0	5	5	701	0	0	1,104
Fermanagh and Omagh	Ederney and Kesh	2,064	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	873	70	0	7	7	436	0	0	1,393
Fermanagh and Omagh	Erne	2,317	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	667	101	0	17	24	850	0	0	1,659
Fermanagh and Omagh	Florence Court and Kinawley	2,125	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	523	67	0	7	7	672	0	0	1,276
Fermanagh and Omagh	Irvinestown	2,118	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	830	96	0	9	9	798	0	0	1,742
Fermanagh and Omagh	Lisbellaw	2,200	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	948	33	0	14	8	625	0	0	1,628
Fermanagh and Omagh	Lisnarrick	1,955	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	850	66	0	12	13	708	0	0	1,649
Fermanagh and Omagh	Lisnaskea	1,811	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	440	67	0	7	7	950	0	0	1,471
Fermanagh and Omagh	Maguiresbridge	2,388	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	620	50	0	9	8	875	0	0	1,562
Fermanagh and Omagh	Newtownbutler	1,888	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	369	56	0	5	6	778	0	0	1,214
Fermanagh and Omagh	Portora	2,064	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	749	104	0	94	58	655	0	0	1,660
Fermanagh and Omagh	Rosslea	1,741	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	304	46	0	5	5	670	0	0	1,030
Fermanagh and Omagh	Rossorry	1,724	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	620	77	0	44	31	520	0	0	1,292
Fermanagh and Omagh	Tempo	2,055	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	792	74	0	7	7	442	0	0	1,322
Mid Ulster	Augher and Clogher	2,465	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	718	101	0	10	10	858	0	0	1,697
Mid Ulster	Aughnacloy	2,255	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	932	81	0	12	10	759	0	0	1,794
Mid Ulster	Ballygawley	1,908	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	538	82	0	8	8	853	0	0	1,489
Mid Ulster	Ballysaggart	1,954	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	1,030	136	0	79	15	1,110	0	0	2,370
Mid Ulster	Caledon	2,476	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	797	106	0	11	11	919	0	0	1,844
Mid Ulster	Castlecaulfield	1,633	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	503	72	0	7	7	628	0	0	1,217
Mid Ulster	Fivemiletown	2,113	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	888	57	0	11	9	653	0	0	1,618
Mid Ulster	Killyman	1,776	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	782	38	0	31	8	569	0	0	1,428
Mid Ulster	Killymeal	1,896	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	945	83	0	114	13	842	0	0	1,997
Mid Ulster	Moy	2,133	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	886	119	0	113	13	779	0	0	1,910
Mid Ulster	Moygashel	1,881	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	941	25	0	84	10	779	0	0	1,839
Mid Ulster	Mullaghmore	2,105	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	811	123	0	29	12	1,055	0	0	2,030
	Total	70,600		24,355	2,586	0	887	423	25,231	0	0	53,482

The full details of these calculations are given on the Fermanagh and South Tyrone seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Newry and Armagh

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Newry and Armagh, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Newry and Armagh				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	UUP Votes	SDLP Votes	DUP Votes	Alliance Votes	Green Votes	SF Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Blackwatertown	3,833	Newry and Armagh	276	436	536	59	0	1,175	0	0	2,482
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Cathedral	3,047	Newry and Armagh	128	483	426	47	0	1,315	0	0	2,399
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Demesne	3,454	Newry and Armagh	200	502	483	78	0	1,153	0	0	2,416
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Hamiltonsbawn	3,479	Newry and Armagh	336	126	901	47	0	726	0	0	2,136
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Keady	3,500	Newry and Armagh	152	481	444	49	0	1,270	0	0	2,396
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Loughbrickland	622	Down South	50	41	133	23	0	121	0	0	368
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Loughgall	3,138	Newry and Armagh	269	148	916	47	0	640	0	0	2,020
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Mahon	88	Upper Bann	7	2	32	3	0	18	0	0	62
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Markethill	3,525	Newry and Armagh	387	150	922	53	0	818	0	0	2,330
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Navan	3,516	Newry and Armagh	259	358	556	52	0	941	0	0	2,166
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Richhill	3,449	Newry and Armagh	373	139	994	52	0	804	0	0	2,362
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Seagahan	3,664	Newry and Armagh	324	447	524	58	0	990	0	0	2,343
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Tandragee	3,437	Upper Bann	393	127	1,012	53	0	832	0	0	2,417
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	The Mall	3,239	Newry and Armagh	297	329	784	155	0	796	0	0	2,361
Newry, Mourne and Down	Abbey	2,418	Newry and Armagh	33	465	322	33	0	943	0	0	1,796
Newry, Mourne and Down	Ballybot	3,172	Newry and Armagh	42	645	448	45	0	1,256	0	0	2,436
Newry, Mourne and Down	Bessbrook	3,020	Newry and Armagh	117	263	394	43	0	1,430	0	0	2,247
Newry, Mourne and Down	Camlough	2,828	Newry and Armagh	70	252	292	32	0	1,127	0	0	1,773
Newry, Mourne and Down	Crossmaglen	2,752	Newry and Armagh	39	248	265	28	0	1,143	0	0	1,723
Newry, Mourne and Down	Damolly	2,360	Newry and Armagh	73	486	352	37	0	847	0	0	1,795
Newry, Mourne and Down	Drumalane	3,029	Newry and Armagh	41	721	404	41	0	1,067	0	0	2,274
Newry, Mourne and Down	Fathom	2,808	Newry and Armagh	34	579	342	35	0	941	0	0	1,931
Newry, Mourne and Down	Forkhill	2,802	Newry and Armagh	57	282	280	30	0	1,099	0	0	1,748
Newry, Mourne and Down	Mayobridge	297	Down South	15	64	41	5	0	79	0	0	204
Newry, Mourne and Down	Mullaghbane	2,835	Newry and Armagh	65	301	306	33	0	1,196	0	0	1,901
Newry, Mourne and Down	Newtownhamilton	2,709	Newry and Armagh	104	194	319	35	0	1,110	0	0	1,762
Newry, Mourne and Down	St Patrick's	2,514	Newry and Armagh	78	603	347	37	0	780	0	0	1,845
Newry, Mourne and Down	Whitecross	2,732	Newry and Armagh	204	182	399	43	0	1,049	0	0	1,877
	Total	78,267		4,423	9,054	13,174	1,253	0	25,666	0	0	53,570

The full details of these calculations are given on the Newry and Armagh seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Newry and Armagh

The new seat of Newry and Armagh is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	UUP Votes	SDLP Votes	DUP Votes	Alliance Votes	Green Votes	SF Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Newry and Armagh
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Blackwatertown	3,626	Newry and Armagh	276	436	536	59	0	1,175	0	0	2,482
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Cathedral	3,505	Newry and Armagh	128	483	426	47	0	1,315	0	0	2,399
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Demesne	3,531	Newry and Armagh	200	502	483	78	0	1,153	0	0	2,416
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Hamiltonsbawn	3,121	Newry and Armagh	336	126	901	47	0	726	0	0	2,136
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Keady	3,502	Newry and Armagh	152	481	444	49	0	1,270	0	0	2,396
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Loughgall	513	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	194	25	0	4	3	163	0	0	389
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Loughgall	2,951	Newry and Armagh	269	148	916	47	0	640	0	0	2,020
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Markethill	3,404	Newry and Armagh	387	150	922	53	0	818	0	0	2,330
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Navan	3,165	Newry and Armagh	259	358	556	52	0	941	0	0	2,166
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Richhill	3,449	Newry and Armagh	373	139	994	52	0	804	0	0	2,362
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Seagahan	3,423	Newry and Armagh	324	447	524	58	0	990	0	0	2,343
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	The Mall	3,449	Newry and Armagh	297	329	784	155	0	796	0	0	2,361
Newry, Mourne and Down	Abbey	240	Down South	2	54	16	2	0	87	0	0	161
Newry, Mourne and Down	Abbey	2,623	Newry and Armagh	33	465	322	33	0	943	0	0	1,796
Newry, Mourne and Down	Ballybot	3,559	Newry and Armagh	42	645	448	45	0	1,256	0	0	2,436
Newry, Mourne and Down	Bessbrook	3,285	Newry and Armagh	117	263	394	43	0	1,430	0	0	2,247
Newry, Mourne and Down	Camlough	2,589	Newry and Armagh	70	252	292	32	0	1,127	0	0	1,773
Newry, Mourne and Down	Crossmaglen	2,518	Newry and Armagh	39	248	265	28	0	1,143	0	0	1,723
Newry, Mourne and Down	Damolly	560	Down South	12	129	44	5	0	186	0	0	376
Newry, Mourne and Down	Damolly	2,622	Newry and Armagh	73	486	352	37	0	847	0	0	1,795
Newry, Mourne and Down	Drumalane	3,322	Newry and Armagh	41	721	404	41	0	1,067	0	0	2,274
Newry, Mourne and Down	Fathom	2,822	Newry and Armagh	34	579	342	35	0	941	0	0	1,931
Newry, Mourne and Down	Forkhill	2,555	Newry and Armagh	57	282	280	30	0	1,099	0	0	1,748
Newry, Mourne and Down	Mullaghbane	2,777	Newry and Armagh	65	301	306	33	0	1,196	0	0	1,901
Newry, Mourne and Down	Newtownhamilton	2,574	Newry and Armagh	104	194	319	35	0	1,110	0	0	1,762
Newry, Mourne and Down	St Patrick's	754	Down South	17	203	56	7	0	224	0	0	507
Newry, Mourne and Down	St Patrick's	2,695	Newry and Armagh	78	603	347	37	0	780	0	0	1,845
Newry, Mourne and Down	Whitecross	2,742	Newry and Armagh	204	182	399	43	0	1,049	0	0	1,877
	Total	75,876		4,183	9,231	12,072	1,187	3	25,276	0	0	51,952

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Newry and Armagh. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.